Climate change and land-use legacies may lead to changes in the stand structure, species composition, tree growth and forest productivity, and species range to a higher elevation [1,2,3].A comprehensive understanding of tree growth response to climatic factors across the distribution range, especially at the lower or upper limit of distribution, is an essential ecological issue under global . Azevedo de Almeida, B., and A. Mostafavi, 2016: Resilience of infrastructure systems to sea-level rise in coastal areas: Impacts, adaptation measures, and implementation challenges. Projected warming temperatures could also increase operations and production costs alongside reductions in milk and meat production.[4]. U.S. Geological Survey, Reston, VA, 26 pp. 2: Climate, KM 6)58 have increased the risk of some types of inland floods, particularly in valleys, where people, infrastructure, and agriculture tend to be concentrated. Thibeault, J. M., and A. Seth, 2014: Changing climate extremes in the Northeast United States: Observations and projections from CMIP5. 28: Adaptation). Dupigny-Giroux, L.A., E.L. Mecray, M.D. Jonathan M. Winter et al, Future Extreme Event Risk in the Rural Northeastern United States, Annals of the American Association of Geographers (2019). Mitchell, M., J. Herman, D. M. Bilkovic, and C. Hershner, 2017: Marsh persistence under sea-level rise is controlled by multiple, geologically variable stressors. Dahl, C. Defila, A. Donnelly, Y. Filella, K. Jatczak, F. Mge, A. Mestre, . Dupigny-Giroux, L.-A., 2001: Towards characterizing and planning for drought in vermont-part I: A climatological perspective. Hondula, D. M., R. E. Davis, M. J. Leisten, M. V. Saha, L. M. Veazey, and C. R. Wegner, 2012: Fine-scale spatial variability of heat-related mortality in Philadelphia County, USA, from 1983-2008: A case-series analysis. 2015. National Trust for Historic Preservation, 2017: Climate and Culture. The number and scope of existing adaptation plans in the Northeast show that many people in the region consider this heritage to be important. These environmental changes are expected to lead to health-related impacts and costs, including additional deaths, emergency room visits and hospitalizations, and a lower quality of life (very high confidence). Garcia-Menendez, F., R. K. Saari, E. Monier, and N. E. Selin, 2015: U.S. air quality and health benefits from avoided climate change under greenhouse gas mitigation. Warmer temperatures are also increasing outbreaks of forests pests and pathogens, including hemlock woolly adelgid. Less distinct seasons with milder winter and earlier spring conditions are already altering ecosystems and environments in ways that adversely impact tourism, farming, and forestry. "Millions of Northeastern residents live near coastlines and river floodplains, where they are potentially more vulnerable to these climate-related impacts," the EPA states on its website. 13: Air Quality, KM 1). Church, J. NOAA's National Marine Fisheries Service, Woods Hole, MA, 822 pp. Easterling, K.E. Consistent with the increase in daily extreme heat events in both scenarios, the incidence of daily extreme cold events days with the coldest temperature of the year for 1976-2005, decreases to one in five years for the high greenhouse gas emissions scenario and to one in four years for the lower emissions scenario. Wildfire smoke can travel hundreds of miles, as occurred in 2015 when Canadian wildfire smoke caused air quality exceedance days in Baltimore, Maryland.328, Climate change is also expected to lengthen and intensify pollen seasons in parts of the United States, potentially leading to additional cases of allergic rhinitis (also known as hay fever) and allergic asthma episodes (Ch. U.S. Northeast China is the dominant maize production area in China and plays . USDA, 2014: 2012 Census of Agriculture. Port Authority of New York and New Jersey, Engineering Department, New York, NY, 10 pp. Although future projections of major floods remain ambiguous, more intense precipitation events (Ch. Its also unusually positioned to handle an influx of climate migrants. Nosakhare, O. K., I. T. Aighewi, A. Y. Chi, A. Maupin, M. A., J. F. Kenny, S. S. Hutson, J. K. Lovelace, N. L. Barber, and Kristin S. Linsey, 2014: Estimated Use of Water in the United States in 2010. Morris, J. T., P. V. Sundareshwar, C. T. Nietch, B. Kjerfve, and D. R. Cahoon, 2002: Responses of coastal wetlands to rising sea level. Thanks to a score of 4 out of 10 in terms of humidity and likely economic damages related to climate change in the New York Times/ProPublic analysis of the Rhodium Group data, Erie County, N.Y., which contains the self-described "climate refuge" city of Buffalo, did not crack the top 300 highest-ranked counties in the U.S. Vital Signs of the Planet Skip Navigation. PDF North East England: climate - Met Office USGC Circular 1405. "In other words, by the middle of this century, every year counties with the lowest income in the Northeast will experience more than two decades worth of our current hottest day. 17: Complex Systems).17,59,60 The regions high density of built environment sites and facilities, large number of historic structures, and older housing and infrastructure compared to other regions suggest that urban centers in the Northeast are particularly vulnerable to climate shifts and extreme weather events. Climate change-induced high frequency of heavy rainfall events will further exacerbate the acidification, which will decrease the quality of soil. Gu, L., P. J. Hanson, W. M. Post, D. P. Kaiser, B. Yang, R. Nemani, S. G. Pallardy, and T. Meyers, 2008: The 2007 eastern US spring freeze: Increased cold damage in a warming world? 28: Adaptation, KM 4).362,363 This includes attention to community concerns about green gentrificationthe practice of making environmental improvements in urban areasthat generally increases property values but often also drives out lower-income residents.364. A demonstration of a novel new approach for analyzing sea level data. Global Change Research Program, 220-256.. Over the last two decades, ocean temperatures in the Northeast have warmed faster than the global ocean. When and why does an electron emit a photon? McCay, B. J., 2012: Shifts in fishing grounds. In Ghana, significant data have existed for some time concerning the important part women play in the struggle against poverty in their role as farmers. Climate variability can affect human migration patterns56 and may change flows into or out of the Northeast as well as between rural and urban locations. U.S. Geological Survey, Reston, VA. Drake, K., H. Halifax, S. C. Adamowicz, and C. Craft, 2015: Carbon sequestration in tidal salt marshes of the northeast United States. Scott, D., J. Dawson, and B. Jones, 2008: Climate change vulnerability of the US Northeast winter recreation tourism sector. The winter recreation industry has long considered snowmaking an adaptation to climate change.387 Snowmaking improvements should assist with the viability of some Northeast ski areas,117 while new tourism opportunities emerge.388, In order to sustain and advance these and other planned efforts towards climate change adaptation and resilience, decision-makers in the Northeast need to be aware of existing constraints and emerging issues. Swanston, C., L. A. Brandt, M. K. Janowiak, S. D. Handler, P. Butler-Leopold, L. Iverson, F. R. Thompson III, T. A. Ontl, and P. D. Shannon, 2018: Vulnerability of forests of the Midwest and Northeast United States to climate change. 2014, Hondula et al. [1]Millions of Northeastern residents live near coastlines and river floodplains, where they are potentially more vulnerable to these climate-related impacts. Hare, J. The content is provided for information purposes only. Sea level rise is one effect of climate change that may change the minds of many because of its reality in today's world. Policymakers, agencies, and natural resource managers are under increasing pressure to manage coastal areas to meet social, economic, and natural resource demands, particularly as sea levels rise. University of Minnesota Press, Minneapolis, MN,. Ocean and coastal ecosystems are being affected by large changes in a variety of climate-related environmental conditions. USGS Open-File Report 20141083. A. Mantooth, and P. H. Templer, 2015: Changes in autumn senescence in northern hemisphere deciduous trees: A meta-analysis of autumn phenology studies. That said, computer modeling that has accurately predicted many of the dire outcomes seen over the past several years offers some insight into what different regions of the U.S. can expect in the coming decades. doi: Paradis, A., J. Elkinton, K. Hayhoe, and J. Buonaccorsi, 2008: Role of winter temperature and climate change on the survival and future range expansion of the hemlock woolly adelgid (Adelges tsugae) in eastern North America. In response to the health threat from heat, local National Weather Service offices issue heat advisories and excessive heat warnings when the forecast calls for very hot weather. We broke down what climate change will do, region by region before making use of copyrighted material. Colgan, C. S., J. Calil, H. Kite-Powell, D. Jin, and P. Hoagland, 2018: Climate change vulnerabilities in the coastal Mid-Atlantic Region. Kunkel, K.L.M. 15: Tribes).97, Projections for the region suggest that sea level rise in the Northeast will be greater than the global average of approximately 0.12 inches (3 mm) per year.247,248 According to Sweet et al. Data was obtained from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, U.S. Census Bureau, NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information, and World Climate Research Programme's Working Group on Coupled Modelling. What affects the climate in the Northeast region? - Mystylit.com Stoll, J. S., C. M. Beitl, and J. In the Northeast U.S. continental shelf ecosystem, drivers of climate change and variability are derived from both natural and human related activities and contribute to physical, chemical, and biological variability in the ecosystem. Activities that rely on natural snow and ice cover are projected to remain economically viable in only far northern parts of the region by end of century under the higher scenario (RCP8.5).117,118, Sensitivity to projected changes in winter climate varies geographically, and venues are adapting by investing in artificial snowmaking, opening higher-elevation trails, and offering a greater range of activities and services.115,117 As the margin for an economically viable winter recreation season (a season with more than 100 days for skiing; more than 50 for snowmobiling) shifts northward and toward higher elevations, some affected areas will be able to extend their seasons with artificial snowmaking. Impacts of Climate Change on Forest Ecosystems in Northeast China Seylier, E., N. Veraart, I. Bartholomew, D. Stander, and S. Croope, 2016: Economic and financial dimensions to a climate resilient transportation infrastructure [webinar]. It is understood that authors for a regional assessment must have scientific and regional credibility in the topical areas. The Middle East and North Africa is among the world's most vulnerable regions when it comes to climate change. Bearmore, B., B. Ozolin, and P. Sacks, 2016: Fort Tilden Historical Bulkhead Assessment. Bell, R. J., D. E. Richardson, J. This can disrupt their maintenance (the energy needed by organisms to maintain their basal levels of activity and . Massachusetts Division of Marine Fisheries , New Bedford, MA, 15 pp. Alexander, M. A., J. D. Scott, K. Friedland, K. E. Mills, J. For years, the overwhelming consensus among climate scientists has been that humans are causing temperatures to rise and that, short of an enforceable global agreement to dramatically cut emissions, the reverberations of that fact will continue to worsen. doi: Gutierrez, B. T., N. G. Plant, E. R. Thieler, and A. Turecek, 2015: Using a Bayesian network to predict barrier island geomorphologic characteristics. Thank you for taking time to provide your feedback to the editors. Current water-related infrastructure in the United States is not designed for the projected wider variability of future climate conditions compared to those recorded in the last century (Ch. I feel that were in a long-term denial and we are talking about resilience, but its unsustainable, Klaus Jacob, a research scientist at Columbia University who also serves on the NPCC, told Yahoo News in 2019 about New Yorks effort to protect Lower Manhattan. On April 28, 2017, the author team met in Burlington, Vermont, and reworked the chapters structure around the risk-based framing of interest to 1) changing seasonality, 2) coastal/ocean resources, 3) rural communities and livelihoods, 4) urban interconnectedness, and 5) adaptation. For example, a study of hospitalization for heat-related illness among people with mental health disorders showed increased risk in rural versus urban areas, possibly due to lower availability of mental health services in these rural areas.352, Separately, large population changes from climate-driven human migration could substantially influence both coastal and inland communities in the Northeast region (see also Key Messages 2 and 5).285 The impacts of human migration on health and well-being depend on myriad factors, including the context of the migration.353. Kwon, and W. G. Zhang, 2015: The role of atmospheric forcing versus ocean advection during the extreme warming of the Northeast U.S. continental shelf in 2012. Northeast CASC | U.S. Geological Survey Schmeltz, M. T., and J. L. Gamble, 2017: Risk characterization of hospitalizations for mental illness and/or behavioral disorders with concurrent heat-related illness. Nordli, J. Peuelas, P. Pirinen, V. Remiv, H. Scheifinger, M. Striz, A. Susnik, A. J. H. Van Vliet, F.-E. Wielgolaski, S. Zach, and A. N. A. Zust, 2006: European phenological response to climate change matches the warming pattern. Still, like the vast majority of counties located in the Northeast, it scored much better than those located in other parts of the country. [4]These activities include snow sports (skiing, snowmobiling, snowshoeing, dog sledding) and ice-based activities (ice fishing and skating). 5: Land Changes, KM 1), topography, and the resilience of individuals and communities.307,308 For example, older or sicker individuals and those persons who are without access to air conditioning, living in older homes, socially isolated, or working outdoors are considered particularly vulnerable to the effects of heat.309,310,311, Annual average temperature over the contiguous United States has increased by 1.2F (0.7C) over the last few decades and by 1.8F (1.0C) relative to the beginning of the last century. Although an outlier when compared with our current climate, the ocean temperatures in 2012 were well within the range projected for the region by the end of the century under the higher scenario (RCP8.5).162 The 2012 ocean heat wave provided a glimpse of impacts affecting ecological and social systems, and experiences during this event can serve as a stress test to guide adaptation planning in years to come (akin to 2015 in the Northwest) (see Ch. Jordan, S. J., J. Stoffer, and J. Vital Signs of the Planet: Global Climate Change and Global Warming. StateFarm, Bloomington, IL. Jones, R., C. Travers, C. Rodgers, B. Lazar, E. English, J. Lipton, J. Vogel, K. Strzepek, and J. Martinich, 2013: Climate change impacts on freshwater recreational fishing in the United States. In 2012, sea surface temperatures on the Northeast Continental Shelf rose approximately 3.6F (2C) above the 19822011 average. However, there is limited published research that quantifies the costs associated with increased damage across an entire system in response to amplified storm events. In 2018, the MENA region emitted 3.2 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide and produced 8.7% of global greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) despite making up only 6% of the global population. Eager to promote the findings, officials in places like Buffalo, N.Y., which lies on the far eastern banks of Lake Erie on the U.S. border with Canada, have even begun marketing the city as a climate change refuge, promoting a relatively low incidence of natural disasters and a long-term forecast of mild weather. B. Rodriguez, S. R. Fegley, and R. A. Luettich, 2014: Sea level anomalies exacerbate beach erosion. Agricultural drought can advance leaf coloring and leaf drop, while abundant soil moisture can delay senescence.101,102 Early frost events or strong winds can also result in sudden leaf senescence and loss.98 Many deciduous trees are projected to experience an overall increase in their amount of autumn foliage color.103, As Northeast winters warm, scenarios project a combination of less early winter snowfall and earlier snowmelt, leading to a shorter snow season.104,105 The proportion of winter precipitation falling as rain has already increased and will likely continue to do so in response to a northward shift in the snowrain transition zone projected under both lower and higher scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5).106,107,108 The shift in precipitation type and fewer days below freezing3,4,35 are expected to result in fewer days with snow on the ground; decreased snow depth, water equivalent, and extent; an earlier snowmelt;105,109,110 and less lake ice.111 Warming during the winterspring transition has already led to earlier snowmelt-related runoff in areas of the Northeast with substantial snowpack (Figure 18.2).112 Earlier snowmelt-related runoff and lower spring peak streamflows in these areas are expected in the 20412095 period compared with the 19512005 period.105, The Northeast winter recreation industry is an important economic resource for rural areas, supporting approximately 44,500 jobs and generating between $2.6$2.7 billion in revenue annually.115,116 Like other outdoor tourism industries, it is strongly influenced by weather and climate, making it particularly vulnerable to climate change.116,117,118 Even under the lower scenario (RCP4.5), the average length of the winter recreation season and the number of recreational visits are projected to decrease by mid-century.118 Under the same scenario, lost time for snowmaking is expected to delay the start of the ski season across southern areas, potentially impacting revenues during the winter holiday season. Urban areas are at risk for large numbers of evacuated and displaced populations and damaged infrastructure due to both extreme precipitation events and recurrent flooding, potentially requiring significant emergency response efforts and consideration of long-term commitment to rebuilding and adaptation, and/or support for relocation where needed. EPA, 2016: Climate Change Indicators in the United States, 2016. Infrastructure, agriculture, fisheries, and ecosystems will be increasingly compromised. [1]This shift in location is expected to cause local declines in species including lobster and cod. Tavernia, B. G., M. D. Nelson, P. Caldwell, and G. Sun, 2013: Water stress projections for the northeastern and midwestern United States in 2060: Anthropogenic and ecological consequences. Extreme storms and temperatures, overall warmer temperatures, degradation of air and water quality, and sea level rise are all associated with adverse health outcomes from heat,20,21,22,23,305,306,307 poor air quality,324,325,326 disease-transmitting vectors,67,333,334 contaminated food and water,322,340,341,344 harmful algal blooms,335 and traumatic stress or health service disruption.17,349 The underlying susceptibility of populations determines whether or not there are health impacts from an exposure and the severity of such impacts.307,308. 3: Water, KM 2). Young, X. Yin, and P. Hennon, 2013: Probable maximum precipitation and climate change. Better understanding of the vulnerability of agriculture-dependent households to climate variability requires exploration of the barriers that . Climate change has been a salient issue for the countries of Northeast Asia (the People's Republic of China, Japan, the Republic of Korea, and Mongolia) in terms of impacts, adaptation, and mitigation. Reed, A. J., M. E. Mann, K. A. Emanuel, N. Lin, B. P. Horton, A. C. Kemp, and J. P. Donnelly, 2015: Increased threat of tropical cyclones and coastal flooding to New York City during the anthropogenic era. For example, estimates of coastal property losses and protective investments through 2100 due to sea level rise and storm surge vary from less than $15 billion for southeastern Massachusetts to in excess of $30 billion for coastal New Jersey and Delaware under either the lower (RCP4.5) or higher (RCP8.5) scenarios (discounted at 3%).29 Saltwater intrusion can also impact drinking water supplies, including the alteration of groundwater systems.283,284 A growing area of research explores potential migration patterns in response to climate-related coastal impacts, where coastal states such as Massachusetts, New Jersey, and New York are anticipated to see large outflows of migrants, a pattern that would stress regional locations further inland.285 In addition to property and infrastructure impacts (Key Message 3), the facilities and cultural resources that support coastal tourism and recreation (such as parking lots, pavilions, and boardwalks), as well as cultural landscapes and historic structures,236,237 will be at increased risk from high tide flooding, storm surge, and long-term inundation.